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Jun 28 2007

Place your bets on the iPhone release.

Posted at 2:33 am under Misc., Travel, Ways to have fun, shopping

I heard yesterday that BetUs.com is taking bets on the initial iPhone release success, scheduled for this Friday, in case you haven’t already heard. I already know of one friend, Casey, who will camped out at the Apple Store in Salem, NH waiting to get his hands on one. Suprisingly, he is the only one I know of that is planning to try to get one this Friday.

I believe the price, and the unheard of 2-year required committment to AT&T/Cingular Wireless, has detered many people to be first in line. When I moved to NH, I needed to get rid of my AT&T plan, and opted for Verizon for the better reception in my area. Where AT&T/Cingular has a five year exclusive contract with the Apple iPhone, I will not be getting one any time soon. :(

So the odds are:

  • Consumers are reported camping out waiting for an iPhone - 3 to 1
  • Initial iPhones get recalled - 30 to 1
  • iPhone sells at least 12 Million units in 2008 - 5 to 6
  • Apple’s stock jumps at least 10% in value in regards to the price on 6/30/07 - 1 to 2
  • Consumers pay at least three times the original price ($1500) on ebay - 2 to 1
  • The screen breaks/cracks like first generation nano - 150 to 1
  • There are mass reports of the battery life being less than the promised 8 hours - 10 to 1
  • Someone is trampled while trying to get an iPhone - 20 to 1

    • this next one is my favorite! :)

  • iPhone spontaneously combusts - 150 to 1

    • How many iPhones will Apple sell in the first month?

  • Over 1.2 Million Units - 5 to 6
  • Under 1.2 Million Units - 5 to 6

    • So given the negative odds and the required commitment to AT&T, why is it that I still WANT ONE?

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    One response so far

    One Response to “Place your bets on the iPhone release.”

    1. Eric Bon 28 Jun 2007 at 7:32 am 1

      Judging by yesterday’s selloff, I think potential customers are starting to realize how expensive the iPhone will be. If you sign the mid-range $99.99/mo service plan after purchasing the 8GB iPhone model, that alone will set you back $3000 during the two-year contract (without any accessories)!

      Other potential hurdles:

      * You must be an AT&T customer to use the iPhone. With a market share of 20%, that means 80% of wireless customers must cancel their current contracts to sign with AT&T. Being a Sprint customer, I would have to pay a $175 cancellation on top of the $3000 price tag for the iPhone. AT&T’s exclusive contract runs through 2009.
      * Only 4 & 8GB of hard drive space? My tiny video iPod holds 30 GB for less than $200.
      * Recent surveys have shown that the majority of IT departments will not even consider the iPhone due to its PC incompatibilities & exclusive AT&T contract. That will dampen business spending & all but eliminate demand for the higher-tier contracts.

      This is the ultimate “sell the news” scenario. On Jan 9th 2007, Steve Jobs announced the iPhone at the Macworld Conference & Expo. The stock has since been on fire rising 50% to $125, adding $30 billion to the company’s market capitalization. Will the iPhone really hold that much value for Apple? This huge runup comes after a fantastic finish to 2006 after Apple’s stock bottomed out at $50 in October. Thus, nearly everyone holding Apple is sitting on huge gains.

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